Reviewing the trading indicator and how it changed relative to its price action through the week.

March 30, 2024

April 2, 2024

April 3, 2024

April 4, 2024

April 5, 2024

Starting on March 30 and April 2, 2024, the trend is quite stable for the initial two days. The SPX500_USD and NAS100_USD hold strong buy signals with scores of 7 and 6, respectively, indicating a bullish outlook on these indices. Commodities like WTICO_USD (crude oil) and precious metals (XAU_USD - gold) also show a positive sentiment with scores above 4, reflecting confidence in these markets. The currency pairs present a mixed bag, with USD_JPY showing moderate buy strength and pairs like AUD_USD, AUD_CAD, and NZD_USD in the sell zone, suggesting a weaker outlook for these currencies.

The trend shifts noticeably by April 3, 2024. The AU200_AUD and USD_JPY take the lead with strong buy signals of 6, indicating a shift in focus towards the Australian index and the Japanese yen. This could suggest a changing market sentiment or response to macroeconomic events affecting these regions. Interestingly, the SPX500_USD and NAS100_USD, which were previously leading, drop in strength, with the NAS100_USD notably falling to a lower buy strength of 2, indicating a potential cooling off or consolidation phase for these indices.

By April 4, 2024, there's a marked change in the strength distribution. USD_JPY maintains its strong buy signal at 6, but now we see a diversification in buy strengths with assets like AUD_CAD, AUD_USD, and GBP_USD stepping up to the 3 score mark. This diversification indicates a broader positive sentiment across different markets, including currencies that were previously weak. The commodities and indices present a more balanced view with moderate strengths, reflecting a cautious optimism.

On April 5, 2024, the trend further evolves with AUD_CAD, AUD_USD, and AU200_AUD leading the charge with scores of 5, showcasing a strong bullish sentiment towards Australian assets. The GBP_JPY and WTICO_USD also exhibit solid strengths, whereas the SPX500_USD falls into the sell zone with a score of -1, a significant reversal from its initial strong buy position, indicating a shift in market sentiment or perhaps reactions to specific economic indicators or events.

Throughout the week, I have observe a dynamic shift in market sentiment across various assets. The initial bullish outlook on U.S. indices gives way to a broader optimistic sentiment across Australian assets, certain commodities, and currencies by the end of the week. The volatility in scores, especially the swings in buy and sell strengths, suggest a market responding to a variety of factors, including economic data releases, geopolitical events, and market speculation. This analysis underscores the importance of your proprietary indicators in navigating the complexities of day trading by identifying shifts in market sentiment and potential trading opportunities.

USD Specific

Throughout the week of March 30 to April 5, 2024, the sentiment towards the USD as indicated by my proprietary trading indicators, shows a dynamic and evolving outlook. Initially, the USD exhibited mixed strengths, particularly noted in a bullish outlook against the JPY and a cautiously optimistic sentiment against the CAD. Mid-week, the USD's strength against the JPY peaked, highlighting a strong bullish sentiment, while the positive outlook against the CAD also increased but then retreated towards neutrality by the week's end. This fluctuation underscores the market's changing confidence in the USD, influenced by economic data, policy announcements, and global market conditions, emphasising the need for adaptability in response to shifting market sentiments.

Connecting trades to the indicators

USDCAD Trades: My initial buy position on March 20 aligned well with the neutral to slightly positive sentiment my indicators showed for USD_CAD at the start of the observed week. My subsequent sell position on March 25 took advantage of a weakening bullish sentiment towards the USD, as reflected by my indicators' shift towards a more neutral outlook on April 4 and 5. However, my sell on April 5 might not have perfectly captured the sentiment as it was executed towards the end of the week when my indicators suggested a more neutral stance.

AUDCAD and AUDUSD Trades: The AUDCAD buy on March 20 and the sell on April 3 highlight my attempt to capture volatility, but they don’t directly align with the indicators' sentiment, which suggested a weakening in AUD strength over the period. AUDUSD trades were mixed, with initial buys not fully in sync with my indicators showing a negative trend for AUD against the USD. The sell position on AUDUSD on April 3, however, was more aligned with the indicators suggesting a stronger USD.

NZDUSD Trades: My NZDUSD buy position on March 20 didn’t align with my indicators, which had NZDUSD consistently in the sell zone. The sell position on April 3 was more in line with the indicators, suggesting I was adapting to the trend.

XAUUSD (Gold) Trades: My trading activity with XAUUSD was mixed. The sell position on March 20 might have been premature, as my indicators didn't strongly signal a sell until later. However, the buy on March 28 and April 2 capitalized on gold's strength seen in the indicators, and the sell on April 4 attempted to anticipate a downturn.

GBPJPY and GBPUSD Trades: The GBPJPY buys and the GBPUSD buy and sell positions illustrate a mixed strategy. Given that GBP's strength was not consistently highlighted in my indicators, these trades appear to have been executed too early and jumping the gun in trying to catch a pullback, with some not fully aligning with the observed trends.